Karen Khachanov vs. Alexei Popyrin, Rolex Paris Masters

Not only is Khachanov 3-1 in four career meetings with Popyrin, but the Russian is also one of the hottest players on the planet right now.

Karen Khachanov officially looks like a Top 10 player again. Just a few weeks ago, the Russian won a title in Almaty. That said, it was a 250 event, and the best player Khachanov played was Aleksandar Vukic. But Khachanov then made a run to the final in Vienna, beating Brandon Nakashima, Matteo Berrettini and Alex de Minaur along the way. He also put up a good fight against Jack Draper in the final. Now, Khachanov is playing more good tennis in Paris, where he has wins over Christopher O’Connell and a red-hot Giovanni Mpetshi Perricard.

This has been a down year for Khachanov, and it definitely took him some time to find his form after a strange run of injuries last year. But he’s back to being a force, and I like him to take care of business against Alexei Popyrin in the Round of 16 at the Rolex Paris Masters.

The only thing I’m really worried about with Khachanov is fatigue—he has played 11 matches over the past 14 days. But he looked up for it against Mpetshi Perricard, outlasting the surging Frenchman in three sets. Khachanov was also able to figure out Mpetshi Perricard’s serve, which has been an impossible task this season. Mpetshi Perricard had gone seven straight matches without being broken, but Khachanov broke him three times. That says a lot about how well he’s seeing the ball right now, and that match should have him up for this meeting with Popyrin, another massive server.

Khachanov has also had some success in this head-to-head series before. The Russian is 3-1 against Popryin, and one of those wins was a straight-set victory in Doha earlier in the year. That’s significant to me, as Khachanov wasn’t in great form at the time. Now that he’s on the rise, I expect him to come through this one.

I also think that some of the changes we’ve seen in Khachanov’s game suit him well for this specific matchup. Khachanov has dialed back his aggression as a returner, which has allowed him to get some more balls back—and then trust in his baseline game. The overall result has been a much-improved break rate. Also, TennisViz and Tennis Data Innovations have a higher Shot Quality for Khachanov in pretty much every single part of the game: serve, return, forehand, backhand.

This just feels like a player that is viewing the end of the season as an opportunity to rack up wins and build confidence for 2025. And while Popyrin is coming off an impressive win over Daniil Medvedev, it’ll take even more to beat this version of Khachanov. I’m not sure he has it in him.

Pick: Khachanov To Win (-133)

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